The Rule 5 Draft: Who's Eligible?

The Seattle Mariners have some work to do, as Joseph A. Yencich points out in his list of Mariners' minor leaguers that are eligible for this year's Rule 5 Draft. The list doesn't include every eligible player, just those most likely to draw interest.

(Originally Published at Mariner Minors)

Tacoma:

OF T.J. Bohn, 1/17/80
2005 Stats (AAA): .321/.360/.395 in 81 at-bats, 15 runs, 7 RBI, 2/23 BB/K
2005 Stats (AA): .308/.365/.468 in 438 at-bats, 67 runs, 58 RBI, 35/96 BB/K
Upside: Reputed to be one of the better defensive outfielders in the system, solid all-around offensive contributor.
Downside: Power is extremely flakey. Prone to the strikeout. Did not walk quite as much this year (trade-off for more batting average). Kind of old.

IF Hunter Brown, 10/24/79
2005 Stats: .291/.366/.448 in 337 at-bats, 53 runs, 53 RBI, 33/71 BB/K
Upside: Can play all around the infield, except maybe short. A blend of Justin Leone and Greg Dobbs in skills, but with more consistency.
Downside: Probably best at a corner, and doesn’t have enough power to stick around there.

RHP Chris Buglovsky, 11/22/79
2005 Stats: 4.24 ERA, .284/.350/.416 against, 11.1 IP, 120 hits, 72/40 K/BB, 1.12 G/F
Upside: Your basic, rubber-armed swingman.
Downside: Struggled this year, compared to last. Doesn’t have much of a strikeout pitch.

C Ryan Christianson, 4/22/81
2005 Stats: .245/.331/.385 in 286 at-bats, 36 runs, 40 RBI, 35/96 BB/K
Upside: Still recovering from injuries, and probably hasn’t hit his ceiling offensively or defensively.
Downside: Oh, right, the injuries… not that productive outside of catcher.

RHP Mike Flannery, 9/20/79
2005 Stats: 9.45 ERA, .333/.441/.481 against, 6.2 IP, 9 hits, 7/6 K/BB, 1.60
Upside: Tremendous early on for Florida. Live arm capable of RH setup.
Downside: Lightbulb isn’t fully switched to on yet.

RHP Sean Green, 4/20/79
2005 Stats (AAA): 3.65 ERA, .221/.338/.320 against, 49.1 IP, 40 hits, 44/29 K/BB, 3.12 G/F
2005 Stats (AA): 2.96 ERA, .189/.263/.256 against, 24.1 IP, 17 hits, 18/8 K/BB, 2.60 G/F
Upside: Extreme groundball reliever with good stuff. Exceeded expectations this season.
Downside: A little old for a prospect.

RHP Jeff Heaverlo, 1/13/78
2005 Stats: 4.61 ERA, .287/.380/.383 against, 82 IP, 92 hits, 71/44 K/BB, 2.02 G/F
Upside: Slider specialist got his life back on track this year.
Downside: Had more injuries and setbacks than you could shake a sizable stick at. Didn’t show significant improvement, and if he didn’t get the courtesy cup of coffee…

LHP Bobby Livingston, 9/3/82
2005 Stats (AAA): 4.70 ERA, .260/.312/.363 against, 51.2 IP, 53 hits, 41/15 K/BB, 1.20 G/F
2005 Stats (AA): 2.86 ERA, .242/.287/.338 against, 116.1 IP, 103 hits, 78/27 K/BB, 1.30 G/F
Upside: A finesse pitcher who isn’t reliant on hitters striking out on his change. Mixes things up quite a bit, and the M’s scouts still swear that he has a few more MPH in him.
Downside: The low velocity, extreme pitchability breed is not officially recognized by the American Kennel Club… I mean, Baseball America.

LHP Damian Moss, 11/24/1976
2005 Stats:: 3.73 ERA, .246/.350/.380 against, 137.2 IP, 125 hits, 93/75 K/BB, 1.07 G/F
Upside: “Major League Experience”. Keeps ball in park and minimizes damage.
Downside: K/BBs are scary, and walks have always been rather unnerving.

OF Abraham Nunez 2/5/77
2005 Stats:: .274/.364/.447 in 481 at-bats, 82 runs, 86 RBI, 71/109 BB/K
Upside: “Major League Experience”. Can play anywhere in the OF.
Downside: It’s been hard to get excited about him ever since they found out his real age.

RHP Dan Wright, 12/14/77
2005 Stats:: Did Not Play
Upside: Former member of the White Sox rotation. Plus stuff.
Downside: He was a project even before he had shoulder surgery.

---

San Antonio:

2B Ismael Castro, 8/14/83
2005 Stats:: .264/.286/.390 in 421 at-bats, 41 runs, 51 RBI, 12/43 BB/K
Upside: Former NWL MVP. Should be a solid producer for second base, and will improve next year. Makes contact.
Downside: Legs are kind of a wreck, shredded one of his knees years ago. Almost entirely a second bagger, and may eventually have to move off.

RHP Renee Cortez, 12/9/82
2005 Stats:: 3.96 ERA, .253/.317/.344 against, 63.2 IP, 61 hits, 62/23 K/BB, 0.97 G/F
Upside: San Antonio announcers have said the past two years that he’s one of the better arms in the ‘pen, and could be really good a couple years down the line. Peripherals much better this year.
Downside: Still hasn’t had a real breakout season.

RHP Rich Dorman, 9/30/78
2005 Stats: (AA): .45 ERA, .113/.257/.129 against, 20 IP, 7 hits, 24/12 K/BB, 1.00 G/F
2005 Stats: (AAA): 6.28 ERA, .234/.357/.440 against, 38.2 IP, 33 hits, 22/26 K/BB, .76 G/F
Upside: Power repertoire. Young as a pitcher, still room for improvement. Destroyed Double-A.
Downside: K/BB is practically locked at 2:1. Couldn’t figure out Triple-A, for some reason.

RHP Emiliano Fruto, 6/6/84
2005 Stats:: 2.57 ERA, .231/.295/.364 against, 66.2 IP, 56 hits, 63/22 K/BB, 1.00 G/F
Upside: Kind of like a right-handed Eddie Guardado in the ‘pen and in the clubhouse, but with more velocity. Finally got serious about baseball this year.
Downside: “Struggled” would be the kind way of describing his brief tour of Triple-A this year.

3B Jesus Guzman, 6/14/84
2005 Stats:: .258/.330/.393 in 453 at-bats, 61 runs, 53 RBI, 45/101 BB/K
Upside: Gets on-base. One of the younger players at the level. Outperforms his tools.
Downside: Didn’t outperform quite as much this year. Bat is not a corner bat, and he’s not too good anywhere else.

OF Gary Harris, 9/9/79
2005 Stats:: .282/.320/.376 in 457 at-bats, 68 runs, 42 RBI, 22/72 BB/K
Upside: Useful all around the outfield. Left-handed batter.
Downside: Mostly a speed player, and lost a few steps this year.

RHP Jon Huber, 7/7/1981
2005 Stats:: 4.74 ERA, .276/.337/.402 against, 148 IP, 157 hits, 112/49 K/BB 1.17 G/F
Upside: Good stuff for a righty. Could be interesting if he figures it all out.
Downside: Still an If.

LHP Cesar Jimenez, 11/12/84
2005 Stats:: 2.62 ERA, .250/.317/.324 against, 68.2 IP, 64 hits, 54/24 K/BB, 1.32 G/F
Upside: Career minor league ERA of under three. Great instincts. Quite young.
Downside: Average velocity. Breaking ball remains a work in progress. More interesting in the rotation.

LHP Chris Key, 10/30/77
2005 Stats:: 2.76 ERA, .281/.311/.393 against, 52 IP, 55 hits, 27/8 K/BB, 2.76 G/F
Upside: Versatile, and one of the better pitchers on the staff every year. Avoids walk. Groundball pitcher.
Downside: Not really exciting in terms of stuff. Old for a prospect.

RHP Nate Mateo, 12/12/80
2005 Stats:: 6.61 ERA, .286/.375/.471, 16.1 IP, 20 hits, 21/10 K/BB, 2.86 G/F
Upside: Live arm with experience in the NPB.
Downside: Horrible after we picked him up, for unexplained reasons.

LF Jon Nelson, 1/24/1980
2005 Stats:: .235/.266/.424 in 375 at-bats, 44 runs, 62 RBI, 15/129 K/BB
Upside: Power/speed combo is intriguing. Probably still developing as a player.
Downside: Doesn’t walk. Struggled against experienced Double-A pitchers. Lost in a fight with a drinking fountain.

LHP Thomas Oldham, 5/18/82
2005 Stats:: 3.67 ERA, .292/.343/.419 against, 154.2 IP, 179 hits, 115/45 K/BB, 1.08 G/F
Upside: Rebounded in the second half, and has added a slider to go with the FB, CH, CV.
Downside: Moderate case of Craig Anderson syndrome. Keeps giving up hits.

C Luis Oliveros, 6/14/83
2005 Stats:: .285/.304/.396 in 144 at-bats, 15 runs, 23 RBI, 2/20 BB/K
Upside: Young, and solid defensively.
Downside: Organization hasn’t liked him since he kind of fell in with the wrong crowd. Not too different from Rene Rivera, career-wise.

LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith, 1/26/83
2005 Stats:: 4.35 ERA, .283/.355/.379 against, 122 IP, 133 hits, 102/51 K/BB, .83 G/F
Upside: Twinkies already drafted him once, and they know their Aussies. Better than his 2005 would lead you to believe, Double-A is a bad place to switch back to being a starter if you’re a lefty with a change-up as one of your better pitches.
Downside: Still gives up about a hit per inning, but one and a half to two and a half fewer Ks for the year. Usual Double-A lefty struggles.

RHP Juan Sandoval, 1/13/81
2005 Stats:: 4.03 ERA, .305/.352/.389 against, 16.2 IP, 196 hits, 99/46 K/BB, .76 G/F
Upside: Always has had good stuff, and doesn’t walk many guys.
Downside: Inconsistency will drive you nuts. Hangs out in the strikezone a bit too much.

---

Inland Empire:

OF Carlos Arroyo, 5/30/81
2005 Stats: .313/.353/.366 in 402 at-bats, 50 runs, 62 RBI, 26/37 BB/K
Upside: Career minor league average of .320. Left-handed.
Downside: Doesn’t walk. Power slightly better than Charles Gipson.

SS Asdrubal Cabrera, 11/13/85
2005 Stats (A+): .284/.325/.418 in 225 at-bats, 31 runs, 26 RBI, 15/47 BB/K
2005 Stats (A): .318/.407/.474 in 192 at-bats, 26 runs, 30 RBI, 30/32 BB/K
Upside: Would be one of the better defensive MIFs in the MLB, right now. Bat has some potential too.
Downside: Move to second wouldn’t be bad, but at third, he might not hit enough.

2B Michael Garciaparra
2005 Stats:: .298/.387/.414 in 336 at-bats, 60 runs, 33 RBI, 35/64 BB/K
Upside: May be starting to figure this baseball thing out. Still Nomar’s little brother.
Downside: Struggles to stay healthy. I can’t think about the 2001 draft without wanting to cry.

RHP Craig James, 3/10/83
2005 Stats (A+): 2.42 ERA, .250/.318/.400 against, 26 IP, 25 hits 24/8 K/BB, .64 G/F
2005 Stats (A): 0.88 ERA, .171/.209/.219 against, 3.2 IP, 18 hits, 31/5 K/BB .88 G/F
Upside: Power stuff, and was an absolute killer at both levels this year.
Downside: Has been under the knife once before.

1B Bryan Lahair, 11/5/82
2005 Stats:.310/.373/.503 in 509 at-bats, 81 runs, 113 RBI, 51/125 BB/K
Upside: Solid power, stellar defense, probably the best 1B prospect we’ve had in a while.
Downside: Can’t hit against southpaws.

LHP Jason Mackintosh, 7/2/80
2005 Stats: 4.26 ERA, .295/.359/.431 against, 179.2 IP, 206 hits, 141/57 K/BB, 1.29 G/F
Upside:Led the system in strikeouts.
Downside: May develop case of Craig Anderson syndrome in Double-A.

RHP Brandon Moorhead, 1/23/80
2005 Stats: 4.75 ERA, .287/.337/.430 against, 142 IP, 162 hits, 120/36 K/BB, 1.21 G/F
Upside: Kind of like Ryan Franklin, if he were a groundball pitcher.
Downside: As a prospect watcher, I’m required by law to doubt the old and untested.

C Justin Ruchti, 12/11/80
2005 Stats:.211/.259/.342 in 199 at-bats, 21 run, 24 RBI, 10/38 BB/K
Upside: Pitchers absolutely love throwing with him behind the plate.
Downside: Pitchers absolutely love throwing with him at the plate.

---

Wisconsin:

IF Oswaldo Navarro, 10/2/84
2005 Stats: .269/.329/.393 in 450 at-bats, 57 runs, 69 RBI, 39/60 BB/K
Upside: One of a number of stellar defensive infield prospects in the system. Breakout offensive season could come at any time.
Downside: Might have the lowest offensive potential of that group. Sounds like Latka from Taxi.

RHP Aaron Jensen, 6/11/84
2005 Stats: 5.56 ERA, .303/.365/.463 against, 157 IP, 190 hits, 87/55 K/BB, .86 G/F
Upside: Sort of has a Gil Meche kind of skillset.
Downside: Which Gil Meche? Years off.

LHP Julio Santiago, 12/8/85
2005 Stats: 4.4 ERA, .281/.321/.399 against, 99.1 IP, 110 hits, 66/23 K/BB, .88 G/F
Upside: Flashes of brilliance that include some real sick dominance, when healthy. Youth.
Downside: Disappears for months at time and doesn’t call or send postcards. Inexperience.

---

Everett:

RHP Edgar Guaramato, 8/5/84
2005 Stats: 3.62 ERA, .183/.346/.262 against, 37.1 IP, 23 hits, 38/24 K/BB, 2.74 G/F
Upside:Rafael Soriano, minus 1 to 3 MPH, plus wacky slider, minus some control, plus groundball tendencies, equals Guaramato. For reference, when Tampa stole Jorge Sosa, he had + 1 H/9, and minus about .5 K/9
Downside: Has pitched for all of two years. Sosa also walked three fewer per nine.

2B Luis Valbuena, 11/30/85
2005 Stats: .261/.333/.443 in 287 at-bats, 47 runs, 51 RBI, 31/37 BB/K
Upside: League MVP type numbers with above-average D at second. Left-handed batter.
Downside: Not as valuable if he moves off second. Offense skewed by home park.

---

Joseph A. Yencich keeps a close eye on the M's farm system at his detailed and informative blog here at Mariner Minors, as well as with InsideThePark.com